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HL Paper 3

The random variables X , Y follow a bivariate normal distribution with product moment correlation coefficient ρ.

A random sample of 11 observations on X, Y was obtained and the value of the sample product moment correlation coefficient, r, was calculated to be −0.708.

The covariance of the random variables U, V is defined by

Cov(U, V) = E((U − E(U))(V − E(V))).

State suitable hypotheses to investigate whether or not a negative linear association exists between X and Y.

[1]
a.

Determine the p-value.

[3]
b.i.

State your conclusion at the 1 % significance level.

[1]
b.ii.

Show that Cov(U, V) = E(UV) − E(U)E(V).

[3]
c.i.

Hence show that if U, V are independent random variables then the population product moment correlation coefficient, ρ, is zero.

[3]
c.ii.



Peter, the Principal of a college, believes that there is an association between the score in a Mathematics test, X , and the time taken to run 500 m, Y seconds, of his students. The following paired data are collected.

It can be assumed that ( X Y ) follow a bivariate normal distribution with product moment correlation coefficient ρ .

State suitable hypotheses H 0 and H 1 to test Peter’s claim, using a two-tailed test.

[1]
a.i.

Carry out a suitable test at the 5 % significance level. With reference to the  p -value, state your conclusion in the context of Peter’s claim.

[4]
a.ii.

Peter uses the regression line of y on x as y = 0.248 x + 83.0 and calculates that a student with a Mathematics test score of 73 will have a running time of 101 seconds. Comment on the validity of his calculation.

[2]
b.